A few days away camped on an isolated beach with family… and big surprise… the Fraser sockeye forecast has grown again, by another 5 million or so. We’re now pushing 30 million total returns into the Fraser.
In relation to DFO’s forecasting, this is higher than the 10% probability — 90p as DFO calls it… e.g. 90% probability that the run won’t be this size.
I can hear the post season meetings now:
DFO: “well… we kind of got it, our 10% guess was almost right”.
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One thing is clear: DFO is public enemy #1 right now. From commercial fishers to a particular Conservative MP in Vancouver (I just find it so odd that Mr. Cummins Conservative MP for Delta area is a member of the governing federal party… maybe someone should send him a memo…)
The National Post has a curious article:
Apparently the commercial industry is up in arms because the capacity to process sockeye is limited. Curious how no fishery in three years might do that. I can follow the ire directed towards DFO to a certain degree from the commercial sector… however, being ready for all possibilities is not the job of DFO. It seems a bit of wanting cake and eating it too when the commercial sector gets angry at DFO because of blown forecasts; however then also blames DFO for not having the capacity.
This seems parallel to me… with blaming the financial melt-down of the last few years on your financial advisor. It’s all their fault that my RRSP was halved in value and retirement just moved from 65 to 85…
No… it’s not the fault of the advisor… the meltdown was far beyond their control (unless of course they had you 100% in stocks — U.S. banking stocks at that…)
I do understand being frustrated about commercial openings and the like… but blaming the capacity — or lack of — of the industry. Well, no, sorry can’t buy that one.
If I ran my own business ventures completely dependent on, for example, weather forecasting (which is more accurate than salmon forecasting)… say, I was in the farming crops business… would it make sense to blame Environment Canada for not having the capacity to harvest a boon of wheat due to much-better-than-forecasted weather?