The Globe and Mail ran the article yesterday:
Pacific Salmon Commission predicts more than 25 million sockeye, more than double earlier forecast.
Good news is… great to see so many fish predicted to return as a total run size, but not what will hit the spawning grounds.
Bad news is… last year pre-season forecast blown about 9 million on the high side; this year blown about 14 million on the low side (at least the median forecast — 50p… there’s lots of wiggle room on either side)
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Is it science? or is it guess-timate?
From the website sciencemadesimple.com:
How do we define science? According to Webster’s New Collegiate Dictionary, the definition of science is “knowledge attained through study or practice,” or “knowledge covering general truths of the operation of general laws, esp. as obtained and tested through scientific method [and] concerned with the physical world.”
What does that really mean? Science refers to a system of acquiring knowledge. This system uses observation and experimentation to describe and explain natural phenomena. The term science also refers to the organized body of knowledge people have gained using that system. Less formally, the word science often describes any systematic field of study or the knowledge gained from it.
What is the purpose of science? Perhaps the most general description is that the purpose of science is to produce useful models of reality.
I suppose it’s certainly a systematic field of study, and there is knowledge gained from it… (even if that might be: the more we know, the more we don’t know…)
“Useful models of reality”? Well…